Showing posts from November, 2016

The New US President: Jobs, Wages, Health & Social Security: What's Next?

More from the Economists for Peace and Security conference. The macro panel, with Josh Bivens, Nancy Altman, Pavlina Tcherneva, and Stephanie Kelton.

EPS Symposium: Policy Challenges for the New US President: Jobs, Wages, Health & Social Security: What's Next? from Thea Harvey.

Galbraith's intro and Global Security Panel

On the blogs

Roundup: Trump’s Harmful Proposals for Replacing Health Reform -- Center on Budget and Policy Priorities on what to expect about health care reform
Three ways to make sense of the dollar in uncertain times -- Barry Eichengreen predicts the dollar will fluctuate (btw, everybody seems pretty certain the Fed will hike interest rates quite a bit, and that fiscal expansion will cause inflation; I'm skeptical about both)
Keeping America’s Promises: The Green-State Climate Agreement -- Frank Ackerman on the Climate Denier in Chief and what can be done about it (State rights?)


From Rod O'Donnell

To President Obama and Secretary Clinton: In the name of god, go

Dear Secretary Clinton and President Obama:

On April 20, 1653, Oliver Cromwell spoke these words to the Long Parliament:

“You have sat here too long for any good you have been doing…. Depart, I say, and let us have done with you. In the name of god, go.”

Secretary Clinton, you are rightly being blamed for the electoral tragedy that has befallen our country. The country wanted change and you offered continuity. You prided yourself on the neoliberal economic policies of your husband, President Bill Clinton, which have driven our country into stagnation and despair. Your rejection in Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania speaks to a greater rejection of the economic policies you, your husband, and your Third Way associates imposed on the party of Franklin Roosevelt.

President Obama, you too deserve enormous blame. You wasted the historic opportunity at the beginning of your presidency to break with neoliberal economics. Instead, you pushed Obamacare with its expensive sub-standard i…

Global Security: Russia, China, Europe and Latin America

Economists for Peace and Security will conduct its 9th annual policy symposium at the Hyatt Regency Capitol Hill in Washington DC today to discuss the economic dimensions of the most pressing global security issues and those facing the domestic economy. Following one of the most unusual presidential and congressional elections in US history, panelists will present ideas for improving prospects for peace, and growth with fairness for all Americans.
Program starts at 9am. Watch the livestream here.

On the blogs -- Election edition

The Rust Party Belt

The High Price of the Trans-Pacific Partnership -- Dean Baker on the role of free trade deals in the election

Is globalization to blame? -- Chris Dillow on, well, whether it was globalization

The long haul -- Paul Krugman, right that is going to be a disaster, but not very perceptive on how (it's not about the bad things that will happen and Drumpf will be unprepared to deal with; it's all about the predatory behavior of the GOP and the president elect cronies, that will feed on the government machine to further enrich the already wealthy)

On Winsconsin! -- Barkley Rosser on how Bernie would have fared

Map of the Day -- David Ruccio shows how to cross the all red country

The working class joins the cocktail party

The working class elephant in the room
Upton Sinclair famously said that "it is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it." Not understanding the results of this election is what the Democratic establishment is trying very hard to do. Many will continues to say that at the heart of the loss are the misogyny, racism and xenophobia of Trump and his supporters, which is real and problematic, but deny the truth that it was the neoliberal free trade policies pushed by the Clintons and Obama that kept people from going to the pools, in particular in the Rust Belt (see here, but also here, which says essentially the same).

Hillary had slightly more votes than Trump (and yes the electoral college doesn't help, but that's not the problem now), but she had less votes than Romney and about 8 million less votes than Obama in 2008 (when some people thought he was a progressive; btw, there was back then a thing called Econo…

CALL FOR PAPERS: Special issue of ROKE on 'Monetary policy and negative nominal interest rates'

The Rust Belt and the Election

It's Manufacturing Stupid!
There will be a lot to say about the election from all kinds of pundits. On the left, many will blame the coverage of emailgate, Comey, the FBI, third party candidates, Bernie and Bernie bros, racism, xenophobia, misogyny, the electoral college and God knows what else. And certainly all of these things did play a role. But it was minor. The election was lost in the old Rust Belt, the decadent manufacturing center that has been hit hard by trade deals (as discussed here, really most of the decline happened after the entry of China in the WTO). Hillary lost Indiana (a given), Michigan (surprise again), Ohio (also not a surprise), Pennsylvania (a yuge surprise to me), and Wisconsin (another surprise). The blue wall that pollsters suggested almost guaranteed her victory was not there (more on that below).

And yes, as noted here, areas hit hard by the effects of trade with China went for Trump. Note that this is not the same as saying that working class voter…

Reading Keynes in Buenos Aires

Paper with Esteban Pérez published in the print (it was online since last year) edition of the Cambridge Journal of Economics. Abstract:
Keynes had a profound influence on Prebisch in terms of the diagnosis about the main failures of market economies and the need to pursue pro-active and anti-cyclical policies. However, Prebisch was critical of some aspects of Keynes’s General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, in particular on the theory of interest and the multiplier. His attitude can be explained by a difference in the object and method of analysis. Prebisch’s interests focussed on dynamics and the cycle, themes that were peripheral to Keynes’s central message. Prebisch’s Keynesian influence and his rejection of some aspects of Keynes’s magnum opus explains why at the same time that Prebisch is often described as the Latin American Keynes, he is portrayed as concerned mainly with the long-run development problem of Latin America and without proper consideration to demand fa…

In the face

"The facts are looking you in the face. What more do you need? This is Nixon. Vote McGovern." Andy Warhol

Latin America at a Crossroads

New paper by Carlos Medeiros, with Nicholas Trebat, at the Centro Sraffa (h/t Alejandro Fiorito, and Revista Circus). From the abstract:
This paper discusses the connections established in recent non–neoclassical literature between growth, structural change and income distribution in large developing economies. We argue that though many analyses have the merit of reintroducing income distribution as a factor in economic growth, they rely almost exclusively on macroeconomic theory, and thus ignore the structural changes that have taken place in recent decades and the ways in which structural aspects of an economy (such as resource availability, market size and geopolitical factors) affect policy options and growth. We argue that Latin American countries today face the same challenge that has constrained their development trajectory historically: to diversify their economic structure through new technological capabilities and greater equality and social progress. Download paper here.

On the Blogs

Assignment of targets to instruments, stability, and Functional Finance -- Nick Rowe on a paper by Josh Mason (see also Josh's replies in the comments section)

Gilded Rage -- David Ruccio on the new book by Alexander Zaitchik, with a link to an interview with the latter
The New View of fiscal policy and its application -- Jason Furman rediscovers expansionist expansionary fiscal policy

Jobs Report and more at the Rick Smith Show

Acemoglu, the Dems and Tuesday's election

I missed this. CEPR blog posted on Thomas Edsall's column and quoted this nugget from Daron Acemoglu (and this guy might get a "Nobel"):
As long as the Democratic Party shakes off its hard-core anti-market, pro-union stance, there is a huge constituency of well-educated, socially conscious Americans that will join in. I don't agree with all of the CEPR proposals. I always found the free trade on professionals a peculiar idea. At any rate, that would alienate a constituency of the Democratic Party. But it is very instructive of what mainstream economists, even some considered liberal, might say, and what we should expect in case Hillary wins and brings these kind of economists as advisers to her administration (if she wins, which as I said earlier, is not guaranteed; it seems now it's going to be very close).

Acemoglu also said, according to Edsall: that Dems, “should seek a coalition that stands for the most vulnerable people in society,” but he believes “such a…